A very, very old television series was called Dragnet, starring Jack Webb as LA Police Sergeant Joe Friday.

When Sergeant Friday questioned witnesses, his regular line was “Just the Facts, Ma’am”.

Last month, I asked you to wade through a short course in basic economics.

Remember those basics as we move forward, particularly when the topic of interest rates comes up.

This month, I will concentrate on the facts, just the facts.

Let’s start with the table of our real estate statistics for June and compare them to those of June last year.  And remember, to smooth out the monthly figures, most comparisons use the most recent three months of this year against the same months last year.

The available inventory for the Conejo Valley was 9% lower than the same period last year.  Prices also slipped, with the Median price down 2% and the Average Price down 5%.  The Median price represents the price midpoint of those homes, half sold above that price and half sold below that price.  The Average is the total sales dollars of all homes divided by the number of home sold.  The difference is based on the mix, with fewer highest price homes sold and more lowest priced homes sold.  We see homes moving off the market after about 4 weeks, but the bright spot for Realtors is that 6% more homes were sold this year versus last year.  With inventory down and sales up, months of inventory computed to 2.6 months, a healthy number.  The most expensive home sales were down 7%, and the inventory of those homes representeed over 1/3 of the entire availabale inventory.

Simi Valley and Moorpark continued to have strong sales, up 15% versus a year ago.  With sales strong, active inventory turned into sales, leaving Simi/Moorpark with 17% fewer homes available to sell than last year.  Median prices dropped due to fewer highest priced properties selling, with the strongest growth in sales (31%)  in properties priced under $750,000.  Over 2/3  of the inventory in Simi/Moorpark is priced below $1 million.  With sales up and inventory down, months of inventory was reduced to only 2.1 months of sales.  That kind of inventory to sales ratio generally supports a sellers market.  Similar to Conejo, properties spent only four weeks on the MLS.

Lets dive into the actual inventory figures for both valleys.

For Conejo, the active inventory has been following the 2025 experience.  Note that in 2023 the inventory at this time of year was only 207, versus 454 today.  Homes available under $750,000 have grown considerably versus last year, while the rest of the categories have decreased.

For the very active Simi Valley/Moorpark areas, the 2025 pattern has shown a decrease from 2025.  Except for the under-$750,000 category, all inventories were less than we had last year.

2026 Closed Sales for Conejo is running along the same path as experienced during 2023, 2024, and 2025.  Note that the average sales numbers for 2016-2019 were 280 units for June, as compared to sales between 156 and 181 for the most recent four years.  Those average figures were helped by extremely low interest rates.  I have excluded the Covid years as anomalies.

For Simi/Moorpark, sales started out the year very strong, but now have settled into the same history as the 2023-2025 experience.  Sales in the 2016-2020 years were almost double what they are currently.  C.A.R. figures show homes that  changed hands every 5-6 years previously now are changing  hands every 16 years.  Just like our population, our markets are maturing.

Looking at these sales figures in a different fashion, recording the total number of sales as the year progresses, shows both Conejo and Simi/Moorpark doing a little better than the past three years, but far from the activity in other years in these graphs.

Finally, the price graphs.  Simlar to the inventory graph, prices tend to move up heading into the summer and drop back heading into winter.  There is more month-to-month fluctuation due to seasonal influence, while the year-to-year totals show prices fairly stable for the past 5 years..

Simi/Moorpark experienced a major increase due to a period of interest rate reductions.  But the hope that ratres will continue to drop is not materializing.  If you want to know why, re-read last months report.

Perhaps the best way to describe our market is STABLE.  Sales are stable, inventory is following the historical increase/decrease provided by the seasons, and prices are stable.  Baring any future military conflicts and major economic explosions, I expect stable to continue.

Stay safe out there.

Chuck