Plateau—definition—a state of little or no change following a period of activity or progress.

We appear to be at a plateau.

In real estate, a plateau describes a period of price and sales activity with little or no change.  That is neither good nor bad, just a way to describe this market.

First, here is a post from Ishay Grinberg, CEO of Rental Beast.

After several years of sharp rent swings and unpredictable demand, the Q3 2025 rental market marks a clear turning point toward stability. According to the latest data from Rental Beast, rent growth has flattened across most regions, leasing activity has normalized, and days on market have increased slightly, all signs of a more balanced and predictable environment.

Our new Q3 2025 Rental Market Report provides national and metro-level insights into the rental landscape, including rent vs. buy comparisons and property manager sentiment analysis.

Key highlights:

  • Rents Hold Steady: 84% of property managers expect rents to remain stable through early 2026.
  • Application Activity Normalizes: The share of managers reporting increased applicant volume dropped from 32% in Q2 to 16% in Q3.
  • Days on Market Tick Up: Median listing times rose modestly to 25–26 days, suggesting a healthier balance between supply and demand.
  • Concessions on the Rise: 32% of listings now include incentives to maintain occupancy in a cooler but stable market.
  • Renting Still Beats Buying: Renters save a median of $756 per month compared to buying, a strong signal of continued rental demand.

Let’s now look at housing in our area, starting with pricing.  Due to our wide variety of home price levels, there are two stories to tell, Median and Average.

Median means “in the middle”.  Median Prices, the blue line in the chart below, identifies the price where exactly half of homes listed are above this price and exactly half are below.  You can see that prices have trended upwards as the year begins and downward as the year closes.  Note that over half of the Median prices reported this summer were very consistent, and looking back to 2023 and 2024, the high prices reached were the same for all three years.

Average Price is arrived at by adding  up all of the sales prices and dividing them by the total number of sales.  A high number of very expensive homes can skew the average price higher than the median price.  The more high priced homes that are included in sales figures, the bigger the spread between Median and Average.  Average Prices, the red line below, reached a plateau in mid-2024.  For 2025, the number of sales of our most expensive homes decreased  sharply, closing the difference between the Average and Median price lines.  Note the size of the vertical black lines between the two.  While the Average price declined significantly for Conejo Valley, the Median price stayed at a plateau during the summer months and is behaving similar to previous history, increasing as the year begins and decreasing as the year ends.  Looking at Average prices may cause concern, but looking at Median prices indicate a more stable market.

For Simi Valley/Moorpark, the distance between the two lines in this graph is shorter.  The Simi Valley/Moorpark population of highest price homes is less than Conejo, pushing the two lines closer together.  Simi/Moorpark did not follow the same pattern of increasing as the year begins and lower as the year ends.  My belief is this was mostly caused by extremely low inventory in the past.  The realatively lower average prices of homes in these valleys represents homes ordinarily purchased with mortgages, whereas the highest priced homes in Conejo are often purchased with all cash.  Very different dynamics.  I hope someone out there can come forward with a better explanation.

The level of Sales Activity also reached a plateau, stable for the past three years.  It is best seen by looking at the graph below that tracks the total number of sales as the year progresses.  For Conejo, the heavy black line below represents 2025 sales to date.  This line is very similar to  2023 and 2024, forecasting that total sales for the year will reach a plateau of 1,600-1,700 units.  This is about 30% less than the pre-COVID years of 2018, 2019, and 2020. with annual sales of 2,300-2,400 units.

The Simi/Moorpark graph is similar to Conejo, although the number of sales is lower.  The years 2023, 2024, and 2025 show sales between 1,200 and 1.300 units, almost 40% lower than the sales for 2018, 2019, and 2020, which achieved annual sales of 2,000 – 2,100.

These charts describe a plateau in both pricing and sales activity.  Other charts have been consistently reported in this blog, and they are updated below.

Inventory has climbed significantly since last year.  For Conejo, inventory is roughly double that in 2023, and has increased across all prices levels.  Check out the inset box in the graph below.  Active inventory is approaching levels more like 2018 and 2019 rather than 2023 and 2024.

Inventory in Simi Valley/Moopark has been extremely low for an extended period of time, and now is approaching levels more like 2018 and 2019 rather than 2023 and 2024.  While inventory is rising significantly, sales are not.

There is a second way to look at how sales numbers compare over the past few years.  As the cummulative chart displayed, Conejo sales are following the level of 2023 and 2024 instead of the 4-year average of 2016-2019.

Simi Valley/Moorpark experienced a big uptick in sales last month, but remains consistently below the 4-year pre-COVID average.

Finally, the statistics table for Conejo Valley.  Remember, most of these numbers represent three months of data to smooth out the changes that may occur from month to month.  Compared to last year, inventory is up 44%, with 1/3 of the inventory residing in the highest price category of over-$1,5 million.  Median prices are down 3%, Average prices down 7%.  Average prices decreased more due to lower activity in the highest price home market (bottom half of table).  Overall, total sales actually increased 4% due to lower mortgage rates allowing more buyers to qualify.  Affordability is based on a blend of mortgage rates and price.  Time-on-mls increased from 32 days last year to 48 days this year.  It is taking longer to sell a home, and price negotiations are more prevalent.  Months of inventory is approaching 3 months, compared to 2 months last year.  This does not yet signify a change from a sellers market to a buyers market, but it does indicate both sides now have balanced negotiating power.

For Simi Valley/Moorpark, inventory was up 54% compared to last year.  The majority of listings, roughly 2/3 of the total, is priced below $1 million.  Median prices decreased 5%, while average pirces decreased 2%.  That plus lower mortgage rates contributed to a 9% increase in sales.  Time-on-mls increased from 30 days last year to 50 days this year.  Sales are taking longer, more price negotiation is being done.  This does not yet  signify a change from a sellers market to a buyers market, but it does indicate both sides now have similar negotiating power.

We are no longer looking at dramatic change, but more at stability.  We are operating at a plateau.  Homeowners need to understand that their properties are no longer experiencing double digit increases, and real estate practitioners may not be happy that there are fewer homes being sold than in past history, but plateaus can be healthy and normal or the market.  Stability is good.  One of the words most recently to describe today’s economy is CHAOTIC.  Better stability than chaos.

You could call this a breather, a rest, or a market rationalization.  Maybe it is just what the market needs.

Stay safe out there.  Enjoy your Thanksgiving holiday, there is much to be thankful for.  And as we prepare for the holidays at the end of they year, we can be thankful for friends and family and good health.  Those are difficult to graph.  Just be thankful.

And, on this Veterans Day, special thanks to those who have served this country in the military.

Chuck

1st Lt, US Army, Vietnam May1968 – Aug 1969