I am hearing this more and more. Without analyzing the statistics thoroughly, it does seem that 90% of the business is now being done by 10% of the agents, particularly if you equate listings with business.
In the Conejo Valley, there are 611 homes active on the market, 69% more than at this time last year. We all thought that the shortage of homes last year prevented us from selling even more homes. We now have plenty of homes to sell, but total sales are down 11%. Inventory growth seems to be stabilizing in the Conejo (see the graph).
In Simi Moorpark, there are 401 homes active on the market, a whopping 156% more than last year. And total sales are down 7%. Inventory here seems to be on a continuing growth path.
Sales are down, but that is not to say that everyone is not trying. Of those 611 active Conejo listings, today there were 133 open houses in the Conejo. Of the 401 active in Simi/Moorpark, 81 had open houses today. Huge numbers. And lots of buyers looking.
We never were able to measure open house activity previously, but now we are able to because agents are placing their open house information into the MLS, and it can be searched out by everyone using the many sites available.
A very unofficial estimate of open house activity can be taken by looking at a busy corner, like Triunfo and Westlake. Every corner today was literally filled with signs.
And buyer activity continues strong. I visited a couple of realtor friends holding open houses today, and they estimated 30 groups per home.
Unemployment is down, and continuing to decrease. Mortgage rates continue to be excellent, even though the Fed has cut back significantly on mortgage-backed security purchases.
All-cash deals continue to be very strong. But the ability to get a client through the mortgage application process continues to be very difficult. That seems to be our biggest problem in closing escrows.
How have home prices been doing? We have plenty of reports that show that prices are much higher than they were a year ago. At this point, price increases have pretty much disappeared.
Home prices experienced a huge step-up in the first quarter of 2013. For the past year we have been comparing prices that took that huge step into account.
Current comparisons no longer show that huge increase. The statistics below compare prices for the last 75 days beginning with April 1 to the same period a year ago. Median prices are up 1% in the Conejo, up about 5% for Simi/Moorpark. Average prices for the Conejo are actually down 2%, up 4% in Simi/Moorpark. This indicates to me that the higher priced homes in the Conejo are not appreciating, while the much smaller percentage of these homes in Simi/Moorpark indicate that lower priced homes are still appreciating. Higher priced homes, not so much.
But remember, these are averages. All real estate is local.
My final charts show the history of closed escrows since 2010. Both areas show activity that a normal market leads us to expect.
Normal. A balanced market. And very much a local market.
That is what your clients are interested in. What is their home, their investment, doing? Is it stable, is it growing, how about that house down the block that just sold?
That’s your job, to make these statistics meaningful for your individual clients, for their individual areas.
Have a prosperous week.
Chuck