Today, the smartest thing I can do to start this blog is to refer you to another blog.
Tim Freund has outlined the future better than I could have. Here is the link.
Let’s look at the numbers to see how the past forecasts the future. We will discuss the Conejo Valley first.
The inventory continue to climb, with no sign of topping out. But REOs and Short Sales have all but disappeared. Notice the Over $1.5 Million inventory, it has been pretty flatlined over the past three years. Inventory growth is in the other price categories.
It may be a little too early to top out, as you can see in the 2013 graph, The increase is not scary, particularly because sales continue reasonably strong. Not as strong as last year, but that should not be the measure of success. Remember, if a property is completely ready to sell, and is priced right, it will sell quickly, and in multiple offers. The graph below is strong, things are getting better as the year progresses.
How have prices been trending? Slightly upwards with the median, more flat with the average, meaning the higher priced properties are not increasing while the lower priced properties are increasing. Not double digit increases, but small increases.
And finally, let’s take a look at the chart of statistics. These are the numbers you want to know so you can quote them to your clients. You know, the elevator speech. (Ever notice you can never find a good elevator when you need one?) the number of sales is down 10%, fairly significant. The feeling is that activity has gotten a little better, that the beginning of the year was slower than current. Keep in mind, these figures are not annual comparisons like so many of the statistical reports. These figures compare the recent three month history with the same period last year, so they are more an indication of what is going on right now.
So we are looking at less than 3 months worth of inventory, but for us that is probably a balanced market. But 63% higher inventory that we had last year at this time. Prices up slightly, with more activity at the lower end than the million dollar end. For a better analysis of supply and demand, go back up to Tim’s blog.
SIMI VALLEY/MOORPARK
Their inventory is also climbing, without an apparent peak at this time. Looking at 2013, we are two months from the peak. A larger percentage of REOs and Short Sales than Conejo, but not a major percentage of the market.
Their sales activity has picked up significantly since the beginning of the year. Very low sales in the beginning of the year (notice the white spaces between the lines). Much stronger now.
I have yet to find an explanation on why Conejo and Simi/Moorpark have such different closed escrow charts. All real estate is local.
Prices in Simi
Median prices are also edging up, with the high end moderating any increase in average price.
And now, the chart of statistics. Inventory growth double the percentage in Conejo, and prices up 55. The inventory is going up more than Conejo, which would tend to moderate prices, but prices in Simi/Moorpark are going up at a higher percentage than Conejo. Probably due to the larger percentage of higher priced homes in Conejo. Still, the number of sales is down 6%. Conejo is down 10%. This is a reversal of the first three months of the year. Both areas continue at a slower volume than last year, but Simi/Moorpark has gotten more activity recently.
So there are the numbers. And my comments. More importantly, what are your comments? What do you think is going on?
Overall, forget the comparisons to last year, that is not the standard we should be compared against. The market is good, and will get better for agents that know how to market, have their plan designed, and are operating according to that plan.
Don’t have a plan? Hmm. Time to talk. Please see me.
Like they said in the movie, “You’re good, but we can make you better”.
Have a prosperous month.