Not too hot, not too cold, just right.
Goldilocks liked it, and so do we.
This week, let’s start with the numbers, then we will look at the pictures (the charts).
How is the market doing in the Conejo Valley? According to the numbers above, prices are up between 6-9%, the number of sales is 22% higher than last year, and inventory is tight, at only 2.4 months. However, inventory of homes priced below $750,000 represents only 1-1/2 months worth of sales. Very tight. Multiple offer tight.
How is the market doing in Simi Valley/Moorpark? According to these numbers, prices are up 3%, the number of sales is 20% higher than last year, and inventory is tight, at only 2.1 months.
Sales are strong, inventory is low, prices are strong. In some price and size ranges, homes are very difficult to find.
Multiple offers? Yes, more and more common.
In both areas, the inventory of homes priced below $750,000 is at only 1-1/2 months, a very tight inventory.
Sales are 20% higher than last year at this time. Let’s see how that looks on the sales graphs.
For Conejo, the slope of the line is nearly perpendicular, indicating very strong sales as we go into the summer. In the last two weeks, 122 homes closed escrow, extremely solid sales. That figure used to represent an entire month.
The picture (graph) for Simi/Moorpark is also extremely strong. It should look strong, both graphs are reporting a 20% increase in sales from the previous year.
Inventory is growing, but thanks to the strong sales numbers, inventory is not growing unusually going into the summer months. Inventory is growing as expected.
In Conejo, the inventory is almost exactly what it was last year at this time. Two years ago, the inventory was so low that prices climbed significantly. We could have sold more homes in 2013, but we did not have the inventory to sell. Last year, we had the inventory, but not the buyers. This year, Goldilocks likes what she sees. Lots of inventory coming onto the market to allow lots of sales to take place.
Simi/Moorpark had a very interesting first four months, with the inventory trying to rise, then dropping, then stabilizing, and finally again climbing. Inventory remains below last year at this time, and is due mainly to the 20% increase in sales numbers. Simi/Moorpark shows more homes priced below $750,000 than in Conejo, but since this is the bread-and-butter range for Simi Valley, inventory only represents 1-1/2 months of sales, a very tight inventory.
With low mortgage rates continuing, jobs increasing, unemployment decreasing, and consumer confidence high, the real estate market locally is solid.
Chuck Lech